Q3 2025 – The summer slowdown
In Q2, global markets were unsettled by the tariff dispute that began in April. While those direct impacts have now eased, hiring momentum slowed again as school holidays stretched into longer breaks. What used to be a quick two-week pause has become 2–4 weeks, with many executives taking extended holidays or working remotely. Day-to-day business continues, but major hiring decisions are typically deferred until leaders are back in the office. This is why we so often see the “mid-September surge” in activity, as decision-makers return, regroup, and shift focus toward Q4 priorities.
As I write this, we are already seeing better vacancy numbers come through with our 12-week job-trending report at its highest level for 2025. Hopefully this is a broader market trend and not just a quarterly revival.
AI – promise and caution AI continues to dominate HR conversations. Some organisations are moving quickly, while others are holding back, citing compliance and risk concerns. The debate is less about if AI will reshape HR, and more about how. Many employers are adopting “ring-fenced” AI tools in controlled environments, while others insist on final in-person assessments to avoid AI-driven shortcuts. The enthusiasm is clear, but so too is the caution.
The push for productivity Looking ahead to Q4 and early 2026, “productivity” will be the watchword. With growth slowing, higher interest rates, and tighter access to capital, companies are under pressure to do more with less. For HR, this means helping organisations confront underperformance, aligning people more closely with values, and supporting tougher decisions. In a tight job market, “job-hugging”, employees clinging to current roles, is becoming more common, which adds to the challenge of finding and motivating top talent.
Flexibility and agility as assets Challenging conditions are also elevating the value of flexible talent. Organisations are looking for employees who can step outside their core role and contribute across projects. This agility helps companies stay resilient while giving employees the chance to broaden their skills — a quality that will also benefit candidates once they re-enter the external market.
Recruitment – recovery with caveats Recruitment activity will return, but momentum depends on organisations becoming more decisive. Productivity, performance, and values alignment will all be central. As leaders refocus in Q4, those who act boldly — rather than cautiously — will be best positioned to capture talent and build momentum into 2026.
If you have any questions or queries about the market or would like a deeper dive into anything mentioned, please reach out to Stuart Elliott on se@elliottscotthr.com
